鲍威尔或被提前换任，美元失守、欧元逼近四年高点

Group 1 - The US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility, influenced by President Trump's potential plans to replace Chairman Powell before his term ends in 11 months [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July have increased significantly, with a 25% probability of a cut compared to 12% a week prior, and an anticipated reduction of 64 basis points by year-end [1] - The euro has risen by 0.6% to 1.1729 USD, marking its highest level since September 2021, while the British pound has increased by 0.65% to 1.3753 USD, also a peak since October 2021 [2] Group 2 - The Japanese yen has strengthened as traders await the Bank of Japan's next moves, with expectations of a moderate interest rate path supporting the yen's appreciation [4] - Morgan Stanley has warned that the impact of tariffs could slow US economic growth and increase inflation, with a 40% chance of recession, indicating a potential end to the era of US exceptionalism [4] - A recent survey indicates that central banks managing trillions in reserves are considering reallocating funds from the dollar to gold, euros, and renminbi, with one-third planning to increase gold investments in the next one to two years [5][8]