【南篱/黄金】做局，黄金又要起飞？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, emphasizing the U.S. stance on sanctions and inflation concerns, which may impact future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The article provides predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, indicating a high probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50% on July 31, 2025, at 75.2% [4]. - There is a 68.1% chance of the rate being between 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, and a 51.3% chance of it being between 3.75%-4.00% on October 30, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The article notes that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a critical level at the Bollinger middle band around 3355, which will determine the market's direction [5]. - A bearish flag pattern is forming, indicating potential downward pressure on gold prices, with key support levels around 3300 [7]. - The article highlights the importance of the upper and lower boundaries of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting that a breach of these levels could lead to significant market movements [7].