Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-26 15:47Group 1 - The three major listed hotel companies in China (Huazhu, Jinjiang, and Shoulu) have seen stock price declines of 3%, 5%, and 7% respectively over the past month, attributed to profit-taking after the Labor Day holiday and lackluster comments on the 2025 RevPar outlook [1] - Morgan Stanley has downgraded the 2025 forecasts for all three companies, maintaining a strategy for investors to sell relatively weaker companies (Jinjiang and Shoulu) while considering increasing holdings in Huazhu during price corrections for long-term industry consolidation [1][2] - The expected 2025 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the three hotel companies range from 17 to 22 times, which is higher than most leading discretionary consumer companies in China (16-19 times) and their historical lows post-pandemic (13-15 times) [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's tracking data indicates that the ADR for the three major hotel groups may see significant year-on-year declines in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, with July's pre-sale ADR expected to remain weak despite a rebound in summer demand [2] - The entry of JD.com into the online travel agency (OTA) market is a potential positive factor, as JD.com announced it will waive hotel commissions for the next three years, which could alleviate commission pressures from other OTA platforms [2] - The latest ratings and price targets for the companies are as follows: H World Group (OW, $42.00), Jinjiang International Hotels (UW, $17.00), and BTG Hotels (UW, $11.00) [3]