铂金钯金双涨：贵金属市场的价值博弈与未来迷局

Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant shift, with platinum prices rising above 310 RMB per gram and palladium at 245 RMB per gram, reversing the previous trend where palladium outperformed platinum [1] - The demand for platinum is expected to surge due to its critical role in hydrogen fuel cells, with projections indicating a substantial increase in platinum usage in the automotive sector, particularly in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles [3] - Palladium faces long-term demand pressure due to the decline of the internal combustion engine market, despite new applications emerging in electronics and 5G infrastructure [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price dynamics of platinum and palladium have been volatile over the past decade, with palladium previously reaching a peak price that was 137 RMB higher per gram than platinum in 2019 [3] - The automotive industry's shift towards stricter emission standards significantly boosted palladium demand, while platinum struggled due to weak jewelry demand and limited industrial applications [3] - The current market transformation is driven by the rise of the hydrogen economy, redefining platinum's strategic value as a key catalyst in fuel cells [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The Chinese government aims for a fleet of 1 million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2030, indicating a projected exponential growth in platinum demand [3] - In the jewelry sector, platinum sales have seen a consistent growth rate of over 15% for two consecutive years, driven by consumer preferences for its durability and purity [3] - Palladium's demand is being challenged by the increasing penetration of electric vehicles, which reduces the need for palladium in traditional combustion engines [4] Group 3: Recycling and Recovery Trends - The recovery price of platinum waste has recently surpassed that of palladium, reflecting a shift in supply-demand dynamics [6] - Global platinum recovery has increased from 180 tons in 2020 to 250 tons in 2023, while palladium recovery remains constrained by technological limitations [6] - The efficiency of palladium recovery is only 60% that of platinum, exacerbating supply tightness for palladium [6] Group 4: Investment Perspectives - Analysts suggest that platinum may be viewed as a "hard currency" in the new energy sector, with potential price elasticity over the next five years [6] - Palladium is characterized as a "balancer" between traditional industries and emerging technologies, leading to price fluctuations influenced by dual forces [6] - Market risks, including labor strikes in South African platinum mines and changes in Russian palladium export policies, could significantly impact the valuation of these metals [6]