美联储7月恢复降息概率增大

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated the content of the semi-annual monetary policy report during congressional testimonies, indicating no new information but acknowledging the potential lower-than-expected impact of tariffs on inflation and the possibility of earlier rate cuts, which garnered market attention [1][3] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman expressed support for a rate cut in July, with Waller emphasizing the need to act to avoid risks in the labor market, stating that inflation has not surged as feared and it is time to initiate the rate-cutting process [1][2] - Bowman, previously a hawkish member, indicated support for a rate cut if inflation remains controlled, citing recent lower-than-expected inflation data and the need to consider the weakening labor market [2] Group 2 - Powell's comments during the hearing reflected a cautious approach, acknowledging that the impact of tariffs on retail prices may be less than anticipated, which could influence Fed policy decisions [3] - The Fed's semi-annual report maintains that inflation expectations are aligned with the 2% target, despite concerns about tariffs potentially raising inflation, leading to a careful stance on rate cuts [3] - Current employment levels are balanced, but rising unemployment claims could prompt a rate cut if June employment data shows weakness, although Powell downplayed signs of labor market fatigue [4]