有色金属2025年中期策略：关注黄金和稀土板块

Group 1 - The Shenyuan Nonferrous Metals Index has increased by 8.11% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which has decreased by 2.41% [1] - Among the sub-industries, precious metals have shown the highest growth, with new metal materials and minor metals both increasing by around 30%, while energy metals have seen a slight decline [1] - For the second half of the year, the focus should be on gold and rare earths as key sub-sectors within nonferrous metals [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to continue rising after fluctuations, supported by a negative correlation with long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index [2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to begin a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, which could lead to a decrease in the federal funds target rate below 4.5%, positively impacting gold prices [2] - Historical data shows that during the last rate-cutting cycle from 2018 to 2019, gold prices increased by over 40%, indicating a strong potential for upward movement in the current cycle [2] Group 3 - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching approximately 2,296.37 tons as of May 2025, marking the seventh consecutive month of increases [3] - Despite high gold prices, the ongoing purchases by central banks are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3] Group 4 - The rare earth sector is experiencing tight supply, with China controlling over 50% of global rare earth reserves and more than 70% of production [5] - Demand for rare earths has been growing rapidly, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with expected growth rates of around 25% over the next three years [5] - The future growth points for rare earth demand are anticipated to emerge in humanoid robotics, with a projected compound annual growth rate exceeding 150% over the next three years [5] Group 5 - Overall, the rare earth industry is characterized by tight supply and significant future demand potential, with current prices near historical lows, indicating substantial upside potential [6] - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the rare earth magnetic materials sector [6]