Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-27 00:20Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is expected to experience a long bottoming period of 1-2 years before reaching balance, with a focus on leading companies that have significant cost advantages and can maintain or expand market share during this phase [1][4]. Group 1: Australian Lithium Market - In Q1 2025, Australian lithium production decreased by approximately 9% to 732,000 tons due to production cuts and slowed expansion in response to high costs and low prices [2]. - Greenbushes proactively reduced production by 13%, while PLS saw a 34% drop in output due to maintenance and project adjustments [2]. - Average FOB costs for sample mines fell by 10% to $418 per ton, while average selling prices increased by 4.75% to $833 per ton, slightly easing profit pressure on producers [2]. Group 2: South American Salt Lakes - South American salt lake companies demonstrated strong operational resilience, with SQM achieving its highest Q1 sales of 55,000 tons LCE, showcasing robust resource management [3]. - Lithium Argentina's C-O salt lake operations saw a 60% year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production to 7,200 tons in Q1 2025 [3]. - South American salt lakes maintain considerable profitability and cash flow due to their significantly lower cost structure compared to hard rock lithium projects [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply elasticity is evident as major overseas lithium mines reduced production, while sales were hindered by lower ore grades, extreme weather affecting logistics, and weak end-user demand, resulting in net inventory reduction [3]. - The current oversupply situation has not fundamentally changed, and inventory digestion will require time [3]. - The overall inventory level is expected to begin depleting in the second half of the year, potentially providing stronger support for lithium prices as downstream demand is anticipated to seasonally recover in Q3 2025 [3].