期货日报：货币属性博弈加剧，贵金属高位震荡待涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has significantly impacted global financial markets, particularly the precious metals market, leading to increased volatility in gold and silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the initiation of the "Lion's Roar" operation by Israel on June 13, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold reaching a peak of $3,470 per ounce and Shanghai gold hitting 800 yuan per gram [1]. - After the conflict escalated, gold prices retreated to a low of $3,300 per ounce, marking a decline of 5%, while Shanghai gold fell to 770 yuan per gram, a decrease of approximately 3.7% [1]. - Silver prices also experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical high of 9,075 yuan per kilogram during the conflict, but subsequently fell to around 8,700 yuan per kilogram after the ceasefire [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Global gold ETF holdings have been increasing continuously, driven by heightened risk aversion among investors due to the conflict [2]. - In contrast, domestic trading volumes for Shanghai gold and silver have remained relatively subdued, indicating a more cautious and rational approach from local investors [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The conflict has raised concerns about energy production and shipping stability in the Middle East, particularly regarding the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact global economic growth and inflation [2][3]. - The relationship between gold and oil prices has strengthened during the conflict, with fears of stagflation in developed economies if oil exports are restricted [3]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly its stance on interest rates, is also influencing gold prices, with potential shifts depending on the economic impact of the conflict [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The immediate impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on global energy supply chains and shipping routes is considered limited, suggesting that gold prices may lack sustained upward momentum in the short term [4]. - However, if the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts later in the year, there could be a new wave of upward pressure on gold and silver prices [4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for gold prices, driven by increasing physical demand from central bank purchases over the next 3 to 5 years [4].