市场预期落空？美联储官员密集发声淡化7月降息

Core Viewpoint - Recent U.S. economic data has strengthened expectations for policy easing, with traders increasingly betting on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, several Fed officials have indicated the need for more time to confirm that tariff-driven price increases will not persistently elevate inflation [1][4]. Economic Data and Fed Officials' Statements - Fed officials, including Waller and Bowman, suggested that if inflation remains controlled, they might support rate cuts as early as the July 29-30 meeting. The interest rate swap market has fully priced in two more rate cuts this year, with a third cut also being anticipated [1]. - Daly acknowledged evidence that tariffs may not lead to significant or sustained inflation spikes, maintaining an open stance on potential rate cuts in the fall. She reiterated her long-standing expectation of possible rate adjustments starting in the fall [4]. - Initial jobless claims data showed a rise to the highest level since November 2021, indicating more individuals are leaving the job market long-term. However, Daly noted that while the labor market is slowing, there are no significant warning signs of deterioration [5]. Divergent Views Among Fed Officials - Four other Fed officials expressed reluctance to support a rate cut at the next meeting, emphasizing the need for more data before making decisions. Collins mentioned the lack of urgency for rate cuts, while Barkin highlighted the upward pressure on prices from tariffs and the need for clearer signals before adjusting rates [6]. - Goolsbee indicated that if inflation trends toward the 2% target and economic uncertainty diminishes, the Fed might consider resuming rate cuts. He expressed optimism about recent positive data and the manageable impact of tariffs [6]. - Powell stated that if not for the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, the Fed might have already initiated rate cuts based on the downward trend in inflation. He emphasized the importance of waiting for more economic information before making policy adjustments [7].