2025风暴中前行：不确定环境下的经济展望报告（英文）

Trade Situation - The US has initiated a full-fledged trade war, imposing a 130% tariff on Chinese imports, raising the global import tariff rate to 25.5%, the highest since the 1890s [1][10][13] - Global export losses due to the trade war are projected to reach $480 billion by 2025, significantly impacting major economies like China and the EU [1][14][16] Global Economic Outlook - Global GDP growth is expected to decline to 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since the pandemic, with the US and Eurozone both forecasted to grow at 0.8% [2][17][32] - Emerging markets, excluding China, are projected to grow at 3.5%, with some countries benefiting from trade agreements and import diversification [2][4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the US is anticipated to peak at 4.3% in 2025, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until October before cutting them to 4% by year-end [3][41][50] - The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates to 1.5% as inflation pressures ease, contrasting with the US's inflationary challenges [3][51] Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting short-term strategies such as frontloading imports and diversifying supply chains to mitigate tariff impacts, with about two-thirds of US firms likely to pass tariff costs onto consumers [4][11][24] - Global corporate bankruptcies are projected to rise by 7% in 2025, with significant increases in the US and Western Europe [4][11] Capital Markets - Capital markets have reacted negatively to the trade war, with expectations of further declines in bond yields and volatility in equity markets [5][11][12] - The mispricing of Trump's second term policies has led to a risk-off sentiment in the markets, although a recovery is anticipated by year-end [5][11][12] Regional Economic Projections - The US is expected to experience a mild recession in 2025, with GDP growth rebounding to 2.2% in 2026 due to policy support [6][28] - The Eurozone's growth is projected at 0.8% in 2025, with Germany's fiscal stimulus partially offsetting trade war impacts [6][28]