金荣中国：美经济数据好坏参半，金价冲高无果维持低位震荡

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on June 26, with an opening price of $3,325.78 per ounce, a high of $3,350.34, a low of $3,309.91, and a closing price of $3,324.81 [1] Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 21 was recorded at 236,000, lower than the market expectation of 245,000, and unchanged from the previous value [2] - The final annualized quarterly GDP for Q1 in the U.S. was reported at -0.5%, below the expected -0.2% [2] - The final annualized quarterly core PCE price index for Q1 was recorded at 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4% [2] - The final quarterly personal consumption expenditures for Q1 were reported at 0.5%, lower than the expected 1.2% [2] - The increase in jobless claims suggests a potential rise in the unemployment rate for June, with economists predicting it may rise from 4.2% in May to 4.3% [2] Real Estate Market - The U.S. pending home sales index for May increased by 1.8% to 72.6, surpassing expectations [4] - The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors noted that while job growth and wage increases support the real estate market, fluctuating mortgage rates significantly impact housing affordability [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Boston Fed President Collins indicated that a rate cut in July may be premature, with a baseline outlook suggesting a potential rate cut later in the year [4] - Fed official Barkin stated that tariffs are likely to increase inflationary pressures in the coming months, although the immediate impact on inflation has been minimal [4] Trade Developments - U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross expressed confidence that a tax bill will pass soon and that trade agreements will be announced shortly [5] - Reports suggest the EU is considering lowering tariffs on a range of U.S. imports to quickly reach a trade agreement with the Trump administration [5] Geopolitical Developments - The Trump administration is reportedly discussing potential measures to assist Iran in obtaining up to $30 billion for civilian nuclear projects as part of efforts to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintained its holdings at 953.39 tons [7] Market Sentiment - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 20.7% [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a pattern of fluctuations, with a current price range between $3,301 and $3,354, indicating a consolidation trend [10] - Short-term price movements suggest a bearish outlook, with resistance levels noted at various moving averages [10] Trading Strategy - Suggested trading ranges include aggressive long positions at $3,295 with a target above $3,316 and short positions at $3,337 with a target below $3,316 [11]