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中金:维持理想汽车-W“买入”评级 年内增程基本盘无忧
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-27 01:40

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Li Auto-W (02015) is adjusting its product strategy, with projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 170 billion, 238.6 billion, and 293.9 billion yuan respectively, and net profits at 12.02 billion, 16.03 billion, and 20.97 billion yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Market Strategy and Performance - The high-end range-extended models are expanding market presence, while pure electric Mega faces challenges; model refreshes are stabilizing the market [2] - In 2022, the L series enhanced smart, safety, and comfort features, leading to rapid sales growth, while the L9/L8 models reduced configurations to broaden audience reach, alleviating concerns over the discontinuation of the Ideal One [2] - In 2023, the L7 successfully penetrated the five-seat SUV market, contributing to monthly sales exceeding 50,000 units by year-end; however, in 2024, the pure electric MPV faced cooling demand and intensified competition in high-end range-extended SUVs, putting overall sales under pressure [2] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The company is refocusing on product development, enhancing charging infrastructure, and heavily investing in AI to prepare for future industry competition [3] - The Mega model's setbacks were attributed to misjudgments in the pure electric market pace, overemphasis on sales expectations, and misalignment between product definition and user needs; corrective measures include restructuring and accelerating the "dual-energy strategy" [3] - A major organizational restructuring is planned for 2024, focusing on product business, integrating resources, and establishing a new Go-to-Market department to enhance product launch coordination [3] Group 3: AI Investment and Future Outlook - Increased investment in AI includes dual-track development of intelligent driving assistance and multi-modal intelligent assistants, with a large model for drivers expected to launch by mid-2025 [4] - The company aims to build a competitive edge in AI through data accumulation, cloud and vehicle computing power enhancements, and self-developed AI infrastructure [4] - The outlook for the year indicates stable sales for range-extended models, with the potential for pure electric products to support annual sales reaching one million units [5]