稳定币难逆转去美元化大势，人民币国际化迎来机遇

Core Viewpoint - The recent passage of the "Genius Act" by the U.S. Senate aims to establish U.S. dominance in the global stablecoin market, but analysts believe that the long-term trend of de-dollarization may challenge the supremacy of the U.S. dollar stablecoin [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Dollar Stablecoin - The U.S. dollar stablecoin currently holds over 95% of the global stablecoin market share, and its compliant development may significantly impact emerging economies, promoting "dollarization" in certain regions [1][5]. - The "Triffin Dilemma" suggests that while the U.S. dollar has achieved the status of an international reserve currency, it faces inherent contradictions that may undermine its stability as a global currency [4][6]. - The U.S. stablecoin legislation requires issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve ratio with high liquidity assets, reinforcing the dollar's dominant position [1]. Group 2: Global De-dollarization Trends - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the U.S. dollar's share in global official foreign exchange reserves is projected to drop to 57.80% by the end of 2024, the lowest since 1995 [5]. - Other countries, including the EU and Hong Kong, are implementing regulations for stablecoins that do not peg to the U.S. dollar, potentially challenging the dollar's reserve currency status [5][8]. - The rise of non-dollar stablecoins may further promote the trend of de-dollarization as more nations develop their own stablecoin frameworks [5][6]. Group 3: Opportunities for Renminbi Stablecoin - Analysts suggest that China should actively promote the development of a renminbi stablecoin to enhance the internationalization of the renminbi, leveraging its economic strengths and digital payment advancements [5][7]. - The renminbi stablecoin could benefit from China's significant trade volume and economic scale, contrasting with the U.S. situation, which is hindered by the "Triffin Dilemma" [6][7]. - Hong Kong's new stablecoin regulations provide a legal foundation for the issuance of a renminbi stablecoin, creating a natural market for cross-border trade settlements [8].