等待进一步突破

Market Performance - A-share market has seen continuous volume increase and has broken through March highs, reaching a new annual high [1] - The rise is primarily driven by the non-bank financial and defense industries, with the non-bank financial sector benefiting from sentiment in Hong Kong brokerage stocks [1][2] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The strong performance of the non-bank financial sector is influenced by the approval of Guotai Junan International to provide comprehensive virtual asset trading services in Hong Kong [1] - The upcoming implementation of the Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation on August 1 has also contributed to the active sentiment in the financial sector [1] - The sector has seen a nearly 10% increase over the past three days, with institutions accelerating the replenishment of financial heavyweight stocks [2] Defense Industry - The defense and military industry has also contributed to the A-share market's upward movement, driven by several catalysts [3] - A significant event is the grand military parade scheduled for September 3, showcasing both traditional and new military capabilities [3] - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense ministers' meeting further enhances military cooperation among member states [3] Macroeconomic Factors - Current liquidity remains loose, with expectations of declining risk-free returns, providing ample potential liquidity for the equity market [4] - The market sentiment has improved, leading to a new price level for stock indices, although external factors like geopolitical issues may cause short-term disturbances [4] Future Market Outlook - The future performance of stock indices will depend on three key factors: US-China relations, incremental fiscal policies, and the technology sector's conditions [5] - The US-China trade relationship is characterized by short-term easing and long-term competition, with ongoing structural conflicts [5] - Fiscal policy remains focused on stabilizing the economy, with potential new policy windows if fiscal limits are reached in August [5] - The technology sector has seen a reduction in crowding, indicating conditions for a rebound, although global risk aversion may limit this [5][6]