Core Viewpoint - The expectation from Li Shufu for Cao Cao Mobility to "surpass Didi to be successful" appears increasingly like an unattainable dream in the current market context [1] Company Overview - Cao Cao Mobility, incubated by Geely, has faced significant financial challenges, including a cumulative loss of 5.2 billion yuan over three years and a high dependency on aggregator platforms for 85.4% of its orders [4][5][14] - The company went public on June 25, 2025, but its stock price plummeted by 19.4% on the first day, closing at 36 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 19 billion HKD [3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue increased from 7.63 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.66 billion yuan in 2024, but net losses remained substantial at 20.07 million, 19.81 million, and 12.46 million yuan for the respective years [5][7] - As of the end of 2024, total liabilities reached 11.28 billion yuan, with cash and equivalents only at 159 million yuan, indicating a precarious financial position [5][8] Business Model and Strategy - Cao Cao Mobility operates under a B2C heavy asset model, which has led to high operational costs and limited expansion capabilities, with a gross margin of only 8.1% compared to Didi's 18.15% [10][13] - The company has been forced to allocate 34% of its IPO proceeds to repay short-term debts, highlighting the necessity of financing for survival rather than growth [8] Market Environment - The overall market sentiment is negative, as evidenced by the poor performance of other similar companies like Dida and Ruqi, which have seen their stock prices drop by 80% [9] - Despite the projected growth of the shared mobility market in China, the competitive landscape remains dominated by Didi, making it challenging for other players to achieve economies of scale [9] Future Outlook - Cao Cao Mobility's reliance on aggregator platforms has increased significantly, with commissions paid to these platforms reaching 1.046 billion yuan in 2024, which is 85.7% of its sales expenses [14] - The company plans to invest 17% of its IPO proceeds (approximately 295 million HKD) into autonomous driving research, but this amount is significantly lower than competitors like Waymo and Baidu [15]
曹操出行上市首日破发，难以为继的盈利和看不清的未来