【UNFX课堂】白宫的“后座司机”策略：特朗普急于换掉鲍威尔，华尔街屏息以待

Core Viewpoint - Donald Trump is considering announcing his choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair significantly ahead of schedule, which could influence monetary policy before the official transition occurs [1][9]. Group 1: Trump's Strategy - The idea is to create a "designate chair" who can shape market expectations about future interest rates through public appearances [2]. - This strategy is seen as a high-risk maneuver, with several potential candidates emerging, each with different backgrounds and perceived flaws [3]. Group 2: Potential Candidates - Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor known for his hawkish stance, is considered but may not align with Trump's preference for a more dovish candidate [3]. - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, reportedly has little interest in the position [3]. - Scott Bessenette, the Treasury Secretary, is viewed as a favorable option due to his strong connections on Wall Street and ability to navigate chaotic policies [4]. - David Malpass, former World Bank President, has recently shifted to support rate cuts, signaling alignment with Trump's views, though his public image is questioned [4]. - Christopher Waller, a current Fed governor, is seen as a dark horse candidate due to his recent calls for rate cuts [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The political maneuvering introduces significant uncertainty for Wall Street, which dislikes unpredictability, especially regarding borrowing costs [6]. - If a dovish candidate is chosen, it could lead to bond market sell-offs due to inflation concerns, countering Trump's desired outcomes [6]. - Stock markets may initially react positively to anticipated lower rates, but the sustainability of this reaction depends on the new chair's credibility [6]. Group 4: Independence Concerns - Trump's actions are perceived as a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, a principle that has been crucial since the 1970s to avoid political interference [7]. - Many in Wall Street believe that an independent Fed is vital for maintaining price stability and the credibility of the financial system [7]. - The potential for a "political risk premium" in asset prices may arise from perceived political interference [7]. Group 5: Powell's Position - Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026, but he may remain on the board until January 2028, potentially providing a stabilizing influence [8]. - Powell's calm demeanor and focus on economic stability suggest he is attempting to separate himself from the political drama surrounding the Fed [8][9].