日本大选前政策干预显效 东京通胀四个月来首次放缓

Group 1 - Tokyo's inflation has slowed for the first time in four months, primarily due to weakening energy prices and a reduction in water fees ahead of national elections, with consumer prices excluding fresh food rising by 3.1% year-on-year, below economists' median estimate of 3.3% [1] - Overall inflation rate also stands at 3.1%, down from 3.4% in May, remaining significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, indicating that the central bank will continue to consider the timing of future interest rate hikes [1] - Electricity prices increased by 5.3% year-on-year, a notable slowdown from the previous month's 10.8% rise, while gasoline prices fell by 1% compared to a 6.3% increase last month [1] Group 2 - The upcoming elections are expected to focus on the cost of living crisis, with Prime Minister Kishida promising cash handouts to alleviate public pressure, while opposition parties are advocating for a reduction in consumption tax [2] - Economists predict that inflation pressures will intensify due to persistently high oil prices following the conflict in the Middle East, maintaining expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July [2] - The government has implemented measures to address rising rice prices, which saw a year-on-year increase of 90.6% in June, slightly down from 93.7% in May, while overall food prices excluding fresh items rose by 7.2%, the fastest growth since October 2023 [2] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's June meeting minutes indicate that policymakers generally view inflation as exceeding expectations, with the most hawkish member warning that rising inflation risks may necessitate interest rate hikes before trade uncertainties are resolved [3] - Analysts emphasize the importance of consumer spending aligning with price and wage increases, although there is a possibility of consumer stagnation or slight decline, suggesting that current data may not support an immediate rate hike [3]