避险情绪一波三折，黄金为什么不涨了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have led to fluctuating oil prices, while gold prices have remained relatively stable, raising questions about the current state of risk aversion in the market [1][3]. Market Reactions - Gold prices did not react significantly to the Middle East conflict due to several factors: 1) Market expectations have been dulled, with prior conflicts already priced in [3] 2) A stabilizing dollar index has attracted funds back to the U.S., putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold [3] 3) Slowing inflows into gold ETFs and high positions held by CTA funds indicate a lack of new buying momentum [3] 4) The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has delayed interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [3]. Institutional Predictions - Major financial institutions have differing views on gold price forecasts: - Bank of America predicts gold could reach $4000 per ounce within the next 12 months, driven by geopolitical risks and fiscal deficits [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs has a base case of $3300, with a potential extreme of $4200 by the end of 2025, citing central bank purchases and ETF inflows [5]. - Morgan Stanley projects a price of $6000 by early 2029, contingent on a collapse of dollar credit [5]. - Citigroup is the most pessimistic, suggesting prices could fall below $3000 in the next year due to economic recovery [5]. Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Institutions predicting an increase in gold prices cite several supporting factors: 1) High fiscal deficits in the U.S. are expected to weaken dollar credibility, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [5]. 2) Ongoing uncertainty in U.S. policies may exacerbate risks to dollar credibility and economic downturns [5]. 3) Continued central bank purchases of gold, with China increasing its reserves for seven consecutive months [5]. 4) Persistent geopolitical risks are likely to sustain demand for gold as a safe haven [5]. Diverging Opinions - There is a growing divergence in opinions regarding gold prices, with some institutions like Citigroup arguing that U.S. economic recovery will diminish gold's attractiveness, while others emphasize recession risks as supportive for gold [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Gold remains a valuable asset for hedging against equity market risks, with recommendations suggesting a long-term holding strategy not exceeding 15% of total portfolio allocation [8].