“136号文”加速落地，光伏能顺利通过入市这道“窄门”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Document 136" is accelerating the marketization of electricity prices, fundamentally restructuring the revenue model for photovoltaic (PV) power generation, leading to increased uncertainty in both electricity prices and quantities, particularly affecting new projects more than existing ones [3][4][5]. Group 1: Impact of "Document 136" - The "Document 136" has prompted various provinces to issue supporting policies, with Inner Mongolia being the first to release a formal implementation plan [1][3]. - The revenue model for PV power generation will change, with income now derived from mechanism electricity prices and market transactions, rather than guaranteed purchases [3][4]. - The uncertainty in electricity prices and quantities for new PV projects is expected to increase, raising concerns about their viability in the market [3][8]. Group 2: Mechanism Electricity Prices for Existing Projects - Existing projects will have their revenue continuity emphasized, with mechanism electricity prices aligning with local coal benchmark prices, providing a relatively stable income [4]. - For example, the mechanism electricity price in Inner Mongolia is set at 0.3035 yuan/kWh, while in Shandong, it is 0.3949 yuan/kWh, both adhering to the requirements of "Document 136" [4]. - Despite the stability in mechanism electricity prices, the market transaction component remains highly uncertain due to the rapid increase in PV installations, leading to lower actual utilization rates [4][5]. Group 3: Challenges for Incremental Projects - Incremental projects face significant uncertainties regarding both mechanism electricity prices and quantities, with no guarantees for their revenue [5][6]. - The mechanism electricity price for incremental projects is expected to be lower than that for existing projects, potentially leading to price competition [7]. - The execution period for mechanism electricity prices and quantities for incremental projects is also likely to be significantly shorter than that for existing projects, further increasing uncertainty [7][8]. Group 4: Distributed PV Generation Costs - Future distributed PV projects will be required to pay for various costs, including government funds and system reserve fees, which will reduce their profitability [9][10]. - The costs associated with distributed PV generation, such as cross-subsidies and system reserve fees, are expected to be substantial, potentially exceeding 0.2 yuan/kWh [9][10]. - There are ongoing debates regarding the specific fees that distributed PV projects will need to pay, particularly concerning self-consumed electricity [10]. Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - The current policy environment aims to stabilize electricity prices while managing the rising costs associated with PV generation, which is influenced by the need for backup power and grid infrastructure [11][15]. - The balance between stabilizing electricity prices and the increasing costs of PV systems presents a challenge for the future of the industry [15][16]. - The overall expectation is that while PV generation will eventually enter the market, the process will be fraught with challenges, leading to a "narrow door" for new entrants [16].