Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Asian emerging market credit fundamentals are currently favorably valued due to stimulus policies from China and other Asian countries to offset trade war impacts [1] - Asian central banks are easing monetary policies, contributing to low credit spreads in the region [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing growth, leading to a cautious outlook for Asian credit markets as the Federal Reserve balances avoiding recession and controlling inflation [1] Group 2 - Local currency government bonds in Asia are supported by both fundamental and technical factors, with local buyers seeking to increase investments in these perceived risk-free securities [2] - Despite low yield levels, there is optimism for Asian local currency bonds due to favorable basic and technical factors, with some Asian emerging markets experiencing slowing inflation [2] - The expectation is that local central banks will maintain accommodative monetary policies without significant concerns over inflation, especially in the context of potential economic slowdowns [2] Group 3 - The strength of the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken by Q1 2025, which will put pressure on the dollar index [3] - The trend of de-dollarization is anticipated to benefit certain Asian local currency bond markets, with positive expectations for bond prices and exchange rates [3] - India is projected to be one of the least affected countries by tariff impacts, with a favorable outlook for the Indian bond market despite recent gains [3]
景顺:美元指数将持续承压 看好亚洲当地货币债券
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-27 03:31