全球市场“翻篇”了：中东、关税和税改已经“过去”了，聚焦经济和AI

Core Insights - Financial markets are shifting focus from tariff policies to macroeconomic data and the impact of AI on corporate earnings [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariffs has significantly decreased, with expected tariff levels stabilizing between 14% and 17% [2] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran situations, are deemed to have limited macroeconomic impact unless they lead to substantial oil price increases [3] Macroeconomic Outlook - A significant slowdown in global economic growth is anticipated in 2025, with US core PCE inflation projected to reach 3.1% year-on-year by Q4 2025 [4][5] - Initial GDP growth estimates for Q4 2025 are 0.6% for the US and 0.2% for the Eurozone, with expectations of a rebound in 2026 due to fiscal support from tax reforms and stimulus measures [4] AI Impact - The focus of the market is shifting towards the efficiency and cost-reduction capabilities of AI applications, which are beginning to show positive effects on corporate earnings [6] - The adoption of AI is expected to continue driving profitability in the coming quarters, despite an overall economic slowdown [6] Investment Strategy - Barclays maintains an optimistic outlook, favoring equities over bonds in asset allocation, citing low valuations in Europe and the underperformance of Chinese tech giants compared to previous years [7] - The firm acknowledges typical investment risks but remains confident in the potential for stock market gains [7]