帮主郑重：特朗普降息施压遇阻 美联储十高官齐拒7月降息

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "interest rate game" between Trump and the Federal Reserve is creating significant market dynamics, with Trump pushing for immediate rate cuts while Powell and other Fed officials maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to observe inflation trends before making any decisions [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Position - Powell stated that the impact of tariff policies on prices has not fully materialized, and lowering rates now would be akin to "driving with blindfolds," indicating a high level of risk [3]. - The latest PCE inflation rate is at 2.1%, with core PCE at 2.6%, still above the 2% target, suggesting that the Fed is not ready to cut rates until clearer inflation signals emerge [4]. - Employment data shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims decreasing but continuing claims reaching a new high since 2021, indicating a slowing labor market without immediate alarm [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low at 18.6%, rising to 60% by September, reflecting the Fed's internal divisions and the complexity of the current economic environment [5]. - Discrepancies in forecasts from major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley highlight the uncertainty, with Goldman predicting two rate cuts while Morgan Stanley suggests only one or even no cuts [5]. Investment Implications - Increased volatility in U.S. equities is anticipated, particularly in the tech sector, due to the Fed's cautious approach and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [6]. - The performance of the U.S. dollar and gold is under scrutiny, as the Fed's high-rate stance typically supports the dollar, yet recent trends show a decline in the dollar index alongside a strengthening gold market [6]. - The potential impact on A-shares due to external uncertainties could influence capital flows, but domestic policy directions remain clear, with focus areas including military asset consolidation and digital currency trials [6].