Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the explosive growth in photovoltaic installations in the first five months of 2025 has likely overdrawn demand for the second half of the year, with a significant increase in installations leading to a pessimistic outlook for the third quarter [1][2] - In the first five months of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installations reached 197.85 GW, a year-on-year increase of 149.97%, with May alone contributing 92.92 GW, marking a historical high [1] - The shift in domestic distributed photovoltaic policies and new energy market entry policies has led to a "rush installation" effect before the policy changes, resulting in a surge in installations from March to May [1][2] Group 2 - Following the end of the installation rush in June, there is a noticeable vacuum in terminal demand, with industry forecasts predicting a total annual installation of 215-255 GW, which seems unrealistic given the current pace [2] - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with the current number of polysilicon producers at 11, operating at reduced capacity, and expectations of production adjustments amid a declining price environment [3] - The market for polysilicon is under pressure, with significant reductions in orders for distributed projects and limited support from centralized projects, leading to a downturn in production across the supply chain [3] Group 3 - The market outlook for polysilicon prices indicates a sustained low-level operation, with current prices under pressure due to reduced demand and increased inventory levels [3][4] - The first quarter saw polysilicon prices remain high due to strong demand, but subsequent months have seen a decline in prices due to external pressures and reduced installation windows [4] - Strategies for downstream crystal pulling enterprises include buying near market lows to lock in procurement costs, while polysilicon producers may consider selling futures to hedge against profit volatility [4]
多晶硅漫漫熊途何时休
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang·2025-06-27 05:43