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巨富金业:地缘缓和与降息预期博弈,黄金震荡待PCE定方向
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-27 06:53

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the dual influence of easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for interest rate cuts on gold prices [3][4][11] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have temporarily eased, leading to a significant reduction in gold's safe-haven demand, particularly after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [3][11] - The market is currently experiencing a cautious outlook on the economy, reflected in the slight decline of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to around 4.3% [1][4] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 74.9%, driven by weak U.S. economic data, including a contraction in Q1 GDP [4][10] - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a three-year low, theoretically supporting gold prices; however, concerns over "stagflation" are diminishing this positive effect [5][11] - The upcoming release of the U.S. core PCE price index is expected to be a key catalyst for breaking the current price range of gold, with a higher-than-expected reading potentially reinforcing the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates [10][11] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates a fluctuating pattern for gold prices, oscillating between $3,300 and $3,340, with market sentiment remaining cautious [7][11] - The market is closely monitoring the core PCE data, initial jobless claims, and Q1 GDP final data, as these indicators could influence gold's safe-haven demand and price movements [10][11]