欧元期权交易暴增！投资者疯狂押注欧元直冲1.20美元

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing explosive growth in trading volume, driven by a weakening dollar and strong investor sentiment, with a target of reaching the key resistance level of 1.20 USD. Group 1: Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - On June 26, the euro's trading volume in the forex options market exceeded 56 billion USD, significantly higher than the second-ranked Japanese yen at 13 billion USD and the third-ranked Canadian dollar [1][7]. - Investors are focusing on bullish euro options, with the volume of contracts betting on the euro surpassing 1.20 USD increasing over the past week, indicating new funds are flowing into bullish euro strategies [1][7]. - The bullish sentiment for the euro has reached its highest level since early 2024, with hedge funds reducing their bearish positions to the lowest since April [4][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Euro Strength - The euro's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, which alleviated geopolitical tensions, and ongoing expectations of an impending rate cut by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar [5][10]. - Germany's historic large-scale fiscal spending plan has renewed investor confidence in the European economy, which has struggled with stagnation for years [5][10]. - The nearing end of the European Central Bank's tightening cycle contrasts with the potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, further benefiting the euro [5][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts believe the euro has strong momentum, with some suggesting it could become the largest economy outside the U.S. if trade barriers are raised [5][10]. - The euro is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing dollar pessimism, as traditional safe-haven support for the dollar diminishes [5][10]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, some strategists warn that the euro's short-term fair value may be overstretched, requiring significant catalysts such as U.S. tariffs, a collapse in U.S. Treasury yields, or aggressive Fed rate cuts to reach 1.20 USD [6][11].