白银评论：银价早盘窄幅震荡，短期回落走低预期增强。

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices showed a strong performance, with spot silver rising nearly 1% to $36.63 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.81 since June 18, indicating potential for further increases if it breaks above $37.50 [1] - Platinum and palladium prices surged, with palladium increasing over 8% to $1,136.68 per ounce, a new high since October 31, 2024, and platinum rising 5.1% to $1,423.26 per ounce, close to its highest level since September 2014 [1] - The rise in platinum and palladium prices is primarily driven by speculative buying, as investors believe the market is tight and prices are undervalued [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported increased demand for platinum jewelry in China, exacerbating the supply-demand gap and pushing prices higher [1] - Short-term speculation may lead platinum prices to spike to $1,500, but a subsequent drop to $1,200 is anticipated, while palladium may fall to around $1,050 by mid-July [1] Economic Context - The performance of gold prices is closely linked to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policies, with the market optimistic about potential interest rate cuts [2] - The U.S. stock market saw a broad increase, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq approaching historical highs, reflecting optimism about three expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - Mixed economic data presents a challenge, with Q1 GDP revised down to a contraction of 0.5% and consumer spending growth downgraded from 1.2% to 0.5%, indicating weakening economic momentum [2] - The labor market shows signs of strain, with initial jobless claims rising to the highest level since November 2021, suggesting a slowdown in hiring due to tariff policies and economic uncertainty [2] - Durable goods orders rebounded by 16.4% due to strong demand for commercial aircraft, but overall economic activity signals remain soft [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [3] - Richmond Fed President Barkin and San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that tariff effects could justify a rate cut in the fall, but a July cut is considered premature [3] - Market expectations show a 90% probability of a September rate cut, while the probability for July is only 20%, highlighting a divergence in views [3] - The importance of PCE data is emphasized as a potential catalyst for short-term gold price fluctuations [3] - The U.S. dollar and Treasury market performance also significantly influence gold prices, with the dollar falling to its lowest levels against the euro and pound since 2021 [3] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, suggesting strategies for support long positions and resistance short positions [6] - Technical indicators for silver show K-line operating near the lower band, with support at $35.69 [7] - MACD indicators suggest a downward trend, with market activity decreasing, advising caution in trading and recommending light positions [7] - Suggested trading strategies include placing short positions near $37.00 with a stop loss at $37.38 and a take profit target between $35.90 and $335.60 [7]