全球货物贸易景气指数升至103.5创近三年新高，出口订单却跌破基准线

Core Insights - The global merchandise trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021 and remaining above the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing trade growth [1] - Strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of the year was driven by importers' anticipatory purchasing behavior in response to expected tariff policy adjustments [1] - In contrast, the new export orders index fell to 97.9, dropping below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in global trade growth later in the year [1] Trade Dynamics - The global merchandise trade barometer serves as an early warning signal for short-term trade trends by collecting trade statistics from major economies [1] - The report highlights a stark contrast between surging import demand and weak export orders, reflecting an imbalance in the current global trade structure [1] - Export orders were the only category to show negative growth, indicating the fragility of trade growth despite strong import activity [1] Future Outlook - The World Trade Organization warns that increasing uncertainty in trade policies globally could exacerbate the risk of trade contraction [2] - Potential large-scale tariff implementations could pose significant challenges to global trade [2] - While short-term growth in global merchandise trade is observed, the medium-term outlook faces numerous challenges due to rising uncertainty factors in the global economic environment [2]