“预告式”商务拓展兴起，港股创新药将走向何方

Group 1: Market Activity and Trends - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector is experiencing significant activity, with the innovative drug ETF (159567) rising by 0.53% and trading volume exceeding 2.7 billion yuan on June 27 [1] - From June 16 to June 25, medical-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of over 6.4 billion yuan, with several leading innovative drug ETFs receiving more than 1.5 billion yuan [1] - As of June 25, the Hong Kong innovative drug index has increased by 65.50% year-to-date, while the innovative drug index rose by 24.83% [1] Group 2: Business Development (BD) Expectations - The practice of pre-announcing potential BD transactions has become more common in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, particularly since 2025 [2] - Notable companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical and Rongchang Biopharmaceutical have engaged in pre-announcing BD activities, leading to significant stock price increases [3][4] - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical's announcement of a licensing deal with Vor Bio could yield up to 4.105 billion USD in milestone payments, although the initial payment is only 45 million USD [4][5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Dynamics - The recent surge in BD announcements has created a speculative environment, with investors increasingly reacting to potential deals, which may lead to volatility in stock prices [7] - The innovative drug sector has seen a significant influx of southbound capital, with net inflows exceeding 40 billion HKD since 2025 [9] - Despite recent market corrections, the long-term investment logic in the innovative drug sector remains strong, with a year-to-date increase of 54.09% in the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index [10][11] Group 4: Structural Challenges and Future Outlook - The domestic innovative drug market faces structural challenges, with a ceiling effect limiting growth potential, leading to increased reliance on BD transactions for valuation and stock price movements [5][6] - Analysts emphasize that while BD transactions can provide short-term financial relief, systemic support is necessary for sustainable industry growth [11]