美经济数据警报频响，市场低语：降息脚步近了？

Group 1 - The discussion around the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has intensified, with recent economic data suggesting a growing necessity for such cuts despite previous statements from Chairman Powell indicating no urgent need [1] - There is a notable divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of potential rate cuts, with no extreme hawkish views present, indicating a consensus on the need for some form of easing [1][11] - The market is increasingly leaning towards a dovish interpretation of the Fed's stance, leading to a parallel downward shift of approximately 10 basis points across the yield curve [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic momentum index has seen a year-over-year growth rate decline since May, aligning closely with the movements of the U.S. dollar index, suggesting a reasonable feedback loop between the dollar's performance and the economic fundamentals [2] - Following the easing of tariffs, there has been a slight recovery in corporate capital expenditure expectations, although they remain at levels comparable to last September, indicating a slow recovery [7] - The recent comments from Fed officials have further solidified the certainty of potential rate cuts, with non-farm payroll data expected to play a crucial role in determining the path of these cuts [11]