21评论｜中国创新药能否迎来可持续的“大爆发”？

Core Insights - The recent surge in licensing deals for Chinese biotech companies, such as the $12.5 billion upfront payment for a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody by Pfizer, indicates a new record for domestic innovative drugs entering global markets [1][2] - The Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index has risen over 70% this year, reflecting renewed investor interest in the innovative drug sector, reminiscent of the pre-2020 market boom [1] Group 1: Licensing Deals and Market Dynamics - Concerns have emerged regarding whether the current business development (BD) trend signifies that Chinese pharmaceutical companies are "selling seedlings" [2] - Most licensing deals involve a license-out model, retaining domestic rights while granting commercial rights in overseas markets, which is a common practice in global resource allocation [2][4] - The majority of BD projects are still in early clinical stages, with many in preclinical or Phase I, indicating that these transactions are about sharing risks rather than selling mature products [2][3] Group 2: Challenges and Strategic Choices - The global drug development landscape is characterized by long R&D cycles, high costs, and low success rates, making it challenging for Chinese companies to independently manage global Phase III trials and commercialization [3][4] - Licensing out is a rational strategy for Chinese biotech firms to collaborate with global giants, sharing risks and resources in an uncertain environment [3][4] Group 3: Industry Transition and Global Positioning - Chinese biotech is in a transitional phase, with some companies focusing on domestic commercialization while others leverage BD strategies for global expansion [4][5] - A Morgan Stanley report indicates that global licensing deals reached $56.8 billion in Q1 2025, with a significant portion involving early-stage assets, highlighting the market's recognition of early-stage projects [4] Group 4: Risk Sharing and Collaboration - BD transactions are not merely short-term solutions but are strategic choices to lock in certain returns amid uncertainty, allowing companies to avoid overextending resources [6][7] - High-value licensing deals often serve as validation signals, enhancing the credibility and market perception of the involved biotech firms [7][8] Group 5: Capacity Building and Resource Optimization - Chinese biotech firms are leveraging their strengths in early-stage development while relying on global partners to fill gaps in international clinical execution and regulatory approval processes [9][10] - The collaboration between Chinese firms and global players is seen as a means to enhance efficiency and expedite the commercialization of innovative drugs [12] Group 6: Financing Trends and Strategic Evolution - The financing landscape for Chinese biotech has shifted dramatically, with a significant decline in capital inflow since 2021, leading to a reliance on BD transactions as a primary funding mechanism [16][18] - In 2023, upfront payments from BD transactions exceeded 21 billion RMB, surpassing IPO financing, indicating a shift in how companies approach funding [16][18] Group 7: Future Pathways and Strategic Recommendations - The future of Chinese biotech lies in optimizing mechanisms and building a robust institutional and capital framework to support innovation and growth [28] - Strategies such as establishing a national fund for pharmaceutical innovation and facilitating access to capital markets for biotech firms are essential for sustaining growth and development [28]