【环球财经】美股上半年上演“深V”反转，下半年走势如何？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. stock market has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index showing substantial declines from their peaks, but rebounding strongly since mid-April due to reduced policy uncertainty and expectations of a shift towards looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2][4] - The rebound in the U.S. stock market is primarily driven by retail investors and liquidity, with a noted increase in risk appetite as the most pessimistic phase appears to have passed [1][4] - Analysts suggest that the volatility in the U.S. stock market is influenced by the performance of technology stocks, ongoing fiscal and trade deficits, and fluctuating tariff policies, which have all contributed to increased market uncertainty [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the fiscal year 2025 has reached $1.05 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government debt and challenging the high valuations of U.S. stocks [2][3] - The earnings growth of S&P 500 companies has shown resilience, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) growth of 7.5% for 2025, despite downward revisions in profit forecasts [5][6] - Current valuations of U.S. stocks are considered high, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio returning to levels seen in early March, indicating limited potential for further valuation increases [6]