Core Viewpoint - The Boston Fed President Collins signals a personal inclination towards interest rate cuts later this year, but emphasizes high uncertainty in policy direction due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The current U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, and monetary policy is in a "good position," but future adjustments will heavily depend on data, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation [3][5]. - The cancellation of some extreme tariffs has alleviated some inflationary pressures, but the remaining tariffs' effects are not fully realized, with core PCE expected to remain "slightly above" 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - As businesses complete inventory adjustments, tariffed goods are expected to gradually enter the supply chain, potentially leading to further inflation in the coming months [5]. - If price pressures persist, the Fed may need to delay rate cuts or reassess its policy path [5][8]. Fed's Internal Dynamics - The recent Fed meeting maintained interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, with notable internal divisions on the timing of rate cuts. Some members advocate for easing as early as July, while others, including Powell, prefer a wait-and-see approach [5][8]. - Collins' stance is more centrist, neither ruling out the possibility of rate cuts this year nor dismissing the potential for policy shifts due to external shocks [5][8]. Market Expectations - Market analysis suggests that Collins' comments reinforce the Fed's "data-dependent" stance. If inflation rises again due to tariffs, the Fed may need to maintain high rates longer; conversely, signs of economic weakness could lead to earlier rate cuts [8]. - Currently, futures markets are betting on the earliest rate cut in September, but this expectation may fluctuate with policy uncertainties [8].
凯德北京投资基金管理有限公司：美联储政策路径未定 关键看关税通胀效应
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-27 09:50