焦煤连续第三个交易日拉涨为哪般，是反弹还是反转？

Group 1 - Coking coal and coke prices have rebounded, with coking coal rising 4.89% to 847.5 yuan/ton and coke up 2.52% to 1421.5 yuan/ton, marking a significant recovery since June 3 [1] - The rebound in coking coal prices has seen an 18% increase from the recent low, raising questions about whether this is a temporary relief or a sign of a trend reversal in market supply and demand dynamics [1] - Safety inspections have led to the shutdown of a coal mine in Shanxi, affecting 900,000 tons of capacity and contributing to a tighter supply environment [1][2] Group 2 - Steel mills are maintaining high operational rates, with a blast furnace utilization rate of 83.82% and daily iron output at 242.29 million tons, indicating robust demand despite the seasonal downturn [3] - The market sentiment is improving, with increased inquiries for coking coal and a recovery in transaction volumes, although many coking plants remain cautious in their purchasing strategies [3][7] - The Mongolian coal market is experiencing fluctuations, with expectations of continued inventory reductions during the Nadam festival, impacting trade dynamics [4] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the recent price rebound in coking coal is primarily driven by marginal improvements in supply and demand, although the overall market remains oversupplied [7][11] - The current market conditions are characterized by a temporary supply contraction and improving demand, but high absolute inventory levels may limit further price increases [8][11] - Short-term forecasts indicate potential upward movement in coking coal prices, with resistance levels identified between 880 and 900 yuan/ton [9]