美元指数创下阶段新低，哪些资产受益？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the US dollar index, which has dropped over 10% this year and reached a low of 96.9923, is attributed to factors such as the weakening of dollar credit, changes in global geopolitical situations, and negative impacts from tariff policies on the US economy [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Commodities - The decline in the US dollar index typically correlates with an increase in commodity prices, particularly for globally traded commodities priced in dollars [3]. - Specific commodities like copper, aluminum, and platinum have seen significant price increases this year, benefiting from the depreciation of the dollar [4]. - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have experienced substantial gains, with both rising over 20% this year due to the favorable conditions created by the falling dollar index [4]. Group 2: Impact on Stock Markets - The weakening dollar index tends to have a positive short-term effect on the US stock market, especially for export-oriented US companies that gain a price advantage in international markets [4]. - The depreciation of the dollar also encourages liquidity to flow towards non-US markets, potentially boosting their stock performance [4]. Group 3: Impact on Bond Markets - The effects of the declining dollar index on the bond market are complex, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve providing a bullish outlook for US Treasuries [4]. - However, inflationary pressures from tariff policies may negatively impact US bonds, leading to a mixed performance in the bond market [4]. - Historical data indicates that during periods of dollar index decline, bonds tend to perform weaker compared to other asset classes, with significant selling pressure observed in long-term bonds [5]. Group 4: Historical Analysis and Future Outlook - Historical analysis shows that during past declines of the dollar index, precious metals and financial commodities like copper have benefited the most, followed by US and Hong Kong stocks, and then US bonds [5]. - Given the current trend of the dollar index, there is an expectation that investments in gold, silver, and undervalued commodities, as well as core stocks in Hong Kong, may yield significant benefits [5].