Group 1: Inflation Data - The PCE price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in May, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year, slightly above expectations but still consistent with moderate inflation [1] - Economists anticipate that inflation may intensify in the coming months as businesses pass higher import tariffs onto consumers [1][6] Group 2: Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell by 0.3% after adjusting for inflation, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [3] - The decline in consumer spending is widespread and aligns with a drop in consumer confidence, attributed to uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's economic policies [3] - Spending on motor vehicles decreased by 6%, reversing the surge seen in March and April as consumers rushed to purchase before tariffs took effect [3] Group 3: Income and Savings - Personal income experienced its largest decline since 2021 due to reduced government transfer payments, while wages increased by 0.4% for the second consecutive month [3] - The savings rate dropped to 4.5%, indicating that consumers may still have sufficient funds to continue spending despite the decline in income [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to rise in June, July, and August due to tariff impacts on consumer prices [6] - If inflation remains subdued, Fed officials may support interest rate cuts during the next policy meeting scheduled for July 29-30 [6] - Market predictions show a 77.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, with a 22.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut [7]
美国5月核心PCE通胀温和上升 消费支出意外萎缩创年初来最大降幅
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-27 13:42