关税政策致美国经济萎缩，特朗普竟动了架空美联储主席的脑筋

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, significantly down from previous estimates, primarily due to tariff policies leading to increased imports and inflation concerns [1][3] - Analysts predict that inflation rates in the U.S. will surge starting June, with a 40% probability of the economy entering a recession in the second half of the year [3][4] Tariff Impact - The current effective tariff rate in the U.S. hovers around 15%, with a potential GDP growth slowdown of 0.25%-0.75% for every 5%-10% increase in tariffs [3][4] - The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest in the latter half of the year, raising concerns about economic pain [3][4] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that unprecedented tariff policies complicate inflation predictions and decisions on interest rate cuts [5][7] - Trump is reportedly seeking a "compliant" successor to Powell, with potential candidates including Kevin Walsh and others, aiming to influence monetary policy ahead of Powell's term ending [7][9] Dollar's International Standing - The U.S. dollar index has depreciated over 10% this year, with predictions of an additional 5.7% decline in the next 12 months due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical issues [12][14] - There is a structural decline in international investors' appetite for U.S. Treasury bonds, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 123%, raising concerns about the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [12][14]