“口红效应”下的香水行业是好生意吗？

Group 1: Industry Overview - The "lipstick effect" refers to a phenomenon where sales of inexpensive luxury items, like lipsticks, increase during economic downturns as consumers seek affordable indulgences [1] - The Chinese perfume market is the fastest-growing among the top 10 global markets, with a total market size increasing from 14.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 26.1 billion yuan in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.3% [1] - The market is expected to further grow to 47.7 billion yuan by 2028, with a projected CAGR of 12.8% [1] Group 2: Company Profile - Ying Tong Holdings is a pioneer in introducing imported perfumes to the Chinese market, managing a diverse portfolio that includes perfumes, cosmetics, skincare, personal care products, eyewear, and home fragrances [3] - As of 2023, Ying Tong Holdings is the largest perfume group in China, excluding brand owners, and the third-largest overall [3] - The company has over 70 external brands under its distribution and market deployment, including high-profile names like Hermès and Van Cleef & Arpels [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the fiscal years ending March 31, 2023, 2024, and 2025, Ying Tong Holdings reported revenues of 1.699 billion yuan, 1.864 billion yuan, and 2.083 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 173 million yuan, 206 million yuan, and 227 million yuan [5] - The company's revenue is heavily reliant on perfume sales, which accounted for 88.5%, 81.7%, and 80.9% of total revenue in the respective fiscal years [5] - The gross margin for perfume sales was 49.1%, 48.5%, and 48.4% over the same periods [5] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Ying Tong Holdings is diversifying its business by increasing the share of skincare and cosmetics, which contributed 7.3% and 10.9% of revenue in the 2025 fiscal year [6] - The company has launched its own perfume brand, Santa Monica, which, despite its small scale, has shown significant growth potential, increasing from 1 million yuan in revenue in 2023 to 17 million yuan in 2025 [6] - The company is expanding its retail presence through its self-operated brand "Perfume Box," which focuses on creating an interactive retail experience [5][6] Group 5: Market Position and Valuation - Ying Tong Holdings operates a comprehensive distribution network across over 400 cities in China, with more than 100 self-operated outlets and over 8,000 retail points [4] - The company has a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14, which is considered attractive given its growth prospects and potential for future dividends [7][8] - The IPO valuation was below 4 billion yuan, and the stock experienced a slight drop post-listing, indicating a potentially undervalued position in the market [7][8]