跌幅近3% 黄金价格高位盘整

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been experiencing high volatility since June, with a recent decline of nearly 3%, but the underlying logic for a long-term bullish trend remains intact due to expectations of a shift towards monetary easing by global central banks and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][3] Market Analysis - As of June 26, the London gold price fluctuated around $3,333 per ounce, showing a recovery trend despite geopolitical tensions, indicating that the market is reassessing gold's value as a non-credit asset [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices during the Iran conflict was influenced by rising oil prices, which diluted gold's safe-haven status [2] - The global political and economic restructuring is increasing uncertainty, making gold an important hedging tool, especially when geopolitical indices are high [2][3] Central Bank Activity - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with the World Gold Council reporting that over 1,000 tons of gold have been accumulated annually in the past three years, significantly higher than the previous decade's average of 400-500 tons [4][5] - The European Central Bank noted that gold has surpassed the euro as the second-largest reserve asset globally, accounting for 21% of total reserves [4] Investment Trends - There is a growing interest in gold investment products, particularly gold ETFs, with total assets reaching 101.9 billion yuan, a 43% increase since the beginning of the year [6] - Despite some outflows in May, the demand for gold ETFs remains strong, with a notable increase in holdings and inflows compared to historical levels [6] - Investors are shifting their preferences towards stable value assets, such as high-dividend ETFs and gold, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising geopolitical risks [9] Price Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to rise further due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, with projections indicating that gold could reach new highs by 2025-2026 [3][5] - The current price range for gold is experiencing resistance around $3,400 to $3,500 per ounce, and further upward movement may require additional economic deterioration or geopolitical developments [7][8]