Event Overview - Company FY24/25 revenue, down jacket revenue, net profit attributable to parent, and operating cash flow are projected to be 25.902 billion, 21.67 billion, 3.514 billion, and 3.98 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.6%, 11%, 14.3%, and a decline of 45.7% [1] - Despite the impact of a warm winter, revenue performance exceeded pessimistic expectations, primarily driven by growth in franchise operations and contributions from outdoor, lightweight down jackets, and sun protection clothing [1] - Other income for FY24/25 is expected to be 492 million yuan, up from 216 million yuan in the same period last year, while goodwill impairment loss is projected at 170 million yuan, compared to 70 million yuan last year, leaving a remaining goodwill balance of 700 million yuan [1] - After excluding other income, goodwill impairment losses, and losses from joint ventures and associates, the net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 3.21 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [1] Financial Performance - Down jacket and main brand Bosideng revenue grew by 11% and 10%, respectively, with rapid growth in franchises and a slowdown in online sales [1] - Revenue breakdown for FY24/25 shows down jackets, OEM, women's wear, and diversified clothing at 21.67 billion, 3.37 billion, 651 million, and 209 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 11.0%, 26.4%, -20.6%, and 2.8% [1] - The first half of the year saw revenue growth of 23% for down jackets, while the second half experienced a slowdown with only 7% growth due to the warm winter [1] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.22 HKD per share, in addition to an interim dividend of 0.06 HKD, resulting in a payout ratio of 84.1% and a dividend yield of 6.1% [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.3% for FY24/25, with brand down jackets, OEM, women's wear, and diversified clothing gross margins at 63.4%, 19.1%, 63.2%, and 21.7%, respectively [2] - Operating profit margin (OPM) and net profit margin for FY24/25 are projected at 19.2% and 13.6%, reflecting increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The decrease in gross margin is attributed to changes in channel structure, rapid growth of lower-margin sun protection products, and rising costs of core raw materials [2] Inventory and Accounts Receivable - Inventory increased by 23.6% year-on-year to 3.95 billion yuan, with raw materials, work-in-progress, and finished goods accounting for 36.4%, 0.7%, and 62.9% of total inventory, respectively [3] - Inventory turnover days increased to 118 days, up by 3 days year-on-year, while accounts receivable decreased by 20.2% to 1.195 billion yuan [3] - The number of stores increased by 253 to a total of 3,470, with direct-operated and franchise stores increasing by 100 and 153, respectively [1][3] Market Position and Future Outlook - Short-term growth is expected to come from online, franchise, and pop-up store channels, with potential for online sales to follow platform strategy adjustments [4] - Mid-term growth drivers include outdoor product lines and the continued evolution of sun protection and lightweight down jackets [4] - Long-term prospects indicate room for market share growth as the company remains a leader in functional categories, with opportunities for channel expansion and cost control [4]
波司登(3998.HK):暖冬影响好于悲观预期 存货风险可控