Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence among investment banks regarding the future price of gold, with some predicting a decline while others foresee substantial increases [2][6]. Group 1: Bullish Outlook - The bullish camp argues that ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties will support gold prices. Société Générale believes gold is a strong investment and a hedge against geopolitical risks, maintaining a target price of around $3450 per ounce for the summer [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its bullish stance, projecting gold prices to reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 due to structural demand from central banks [4]. - UBS forecasts gold prices to be approximately $3500 per ounce by the end of this year, while Bank of America suggests a strong possibility of prices hitting $4000 in the second half of the year [5]. Group 2: Bearish Outlook - The bearish camp, led by Citigroup, predicts that gold's strong performance will not continue, forecasting a drop to below $3000 per ounce by the end of this year and between $2500 to $2700 by mid-2026, representing a decline of 20-25% from current levels [6]. - Analysts at Citigroup attribute this potential decline to weakening investment demand, improving global economic growth prospects, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may reduce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Despite the usual positive correlation between interest rate cuts and gold prices, there are concerns that the market may have already priced in some of these benefits, leading to a potential correction [6]. Group 3: Changing Asset Allocation - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that over 90% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, reflecting a shift in asset allocation strategies amid geopolitical tensions [8]. - The OMFIF survey reveals that 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold exposure in the next 12 to 24 months, the highest level in five years, suggesting a growing optimism about gold's future [8]. - The report indicates a trend towards diversifying away from the US dollar, with gold, the euro, and the renminbi becoming increasingly important in central bank reserves, signaling a potential end to the dollar's dominance [8].
金价掉到2500美元还是飙到4000美元 该听谁的？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-27 23:11