逼近三年低位，美元指数大跌，资本迅速逃离，特朗普紧急表态

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing an unprecedented crisis, with a significant risk of economic collapse due to long-term accumulated issues [1] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1, marking the first economic shrinkage in three years, which is a substantial downward revision from initial expectations [1] Employment and Unemployment - Unemployment claims have reached a three-and-a-half-year high, indicating a deeper economic weakness despite a seemingly stable low unemployment rate [3] - The low unemployment rate is misleading, as it is influenced by government actions against illegal immigration, leading to job vacancies rather than genuine economic prosperity [3] Trade and Economic Impact - The trade deficit is widening, with net imports dragging down GDP by 4.7% in Q1 and exports declining by 0.4%, contrary to expectations of trade growth from tariff policies [4] - The pause in the trade war has not resulted in the anticipated trade boom, exacerbating the economic situation [4] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's previously strong stance against interest rate cuts is wavering under market pressure, reflecting growing concerns about the economic crisis [6] - The Trump administration is pushing for interest rate cuts as a response to the economic downturn [6] Trade Agreements and Economic Strategy - The Trump administration is seeking to negotiate a trade agreement with China to stimulate exports, particularly in oil and natural gas, as a potential solution to the economic challenges [7] - The strategy involves relying on both Federal Reserve rate cuts and international trade agreements to boost the economy [7] Capital Flight and Investor Sentiment - There is a significant capital outflow, with nearly a quarter of investors selling U.S. stocks due to concerns over unpredictable U.S. policies, reflecting a lack of confidence in the economic outlook [8] - The dollar index has dropped nearly 11% since Trump's presidency began, indicating international capital's apprehension regarding the U.S. economy [8] Conclusion - The U.S. economy is in a precarious situation, with the Trump administration facing immense challenges in addressing the crisis, and the effectiveness of its strategies remains uncertain [11]