第四代半导体材料：比锂稀缺100倍，中国储量世界第一，要出口吗

Core Insights - Antimony prices are experiencing a significant surge, with domestic prices reaching 165,000 CNY/ton in March 2025 and analysts predicting future prices could hit 220,000 to 250,000 CNY/ton, highlighting a transformative shift in the global antimony resource landscape [1][3] Industry Overview - China holds the largest antimony reserves globally, with 670,000 tons, accounting for 30% of the world's total reserves, and its production represents 60% of global output [3][10] - The scarcity of antimony is emphasized, with its abundance in the earth's crust being only 0.000002 to 0.000005, making it significantly rarer than lithium [3] Export Control Impact - In September 2024, China's announcement of export controls on antimony and its derivatives led to a drastic reduction in export volumes, causing overseas antimony prices to soar, with European prices exceeding $52,500/ton by March 2025 [3][8] - The export controls resulted in a 68% drop in China's antimony imports, with December 2024 imports plummeting to 466 tons, far below the previous average of 1,437 tons over the prior eight months [3] Strategic Importance - Antimony is crucial in high-tech applications, with approximately 60% used as a flame retardant and key materials in semiconductors, enhancing the performance of infrared detectors and night vision devices [7] - The demand for antimony is expected to rise due to the new energy pricing reforms in China, which have spurred a surge in photovoltaic installations, increasing the utilization rate of antimony in photovoltaic glass production from 66.45% to over 75% [7] Global Competition - The U.S. is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese antimony by investing $5.25 million to acquire antimony mining rights in Alaska and planning to develop the Idaho antimony project, which is expected to meet 35% of U.S. demand [8] - European traders are facing challenges due to high dependency on imported antimony, with a 69% reliance on imports for antimony oxide, leading to fierce competition for available resources [8] China's Strategic Position - China's advantages in the antimony industry include not only its vast reserves but also its advanced purification technology, achieving a purity level of 99.999%, which is globally leading [10] - The static reserve-to-production ratio for antimony is only 24:1, indicating a limited supply against the backdrop of increasing demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military applications [11] - China's strategic foresight in implementing protective mining policies since 1991 has solidified its dominance in the antimony market, positioning it as a key player in the global resource competition [10][11]