2025年6月金价持续下行创四周新低,避险需求显著减弱市场波动加剧

Price Dynamics - As of June 28, 2025, the international gold price has dropped to $3,260.894 per ounce, marking a decline of over 1.6% on June 27, reaching a four-week low [1] - COMEX gold futures are reported at $3,267.7 per ounce, with a nearly 2% drop in a single day [1] - Domestic gold prices for jewelry have fallen to 996-998 CNY per gram, while platinum jewelry prices have increased to 553 CNY per gram, rising by 18 CNY [2] Core Reasons for Decline - Geopolitical risks have eased, particularly with the de-escalation of the Middle East situation, reducing safe-haven demand [2] - The Federal Reserve's stance, as emphasized by Powell, indicates no urgency to cut interest rates, with a 79.3% probability of maintaining rates in July, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses gold prices [3] - Market sentiment has shifted with long positions being liquidated as gold prices fell below the critical support level of $3,350, triggering automated stop-loss selling [4] Market Sentiment and Future Trends - Bearish outlook from Citibank predicts gold prices may drop to $2,500-$2,700 by 2026 due to weak demand and delayed Fed rate cuts [6] - Short-term pressure may see gold prices testing the $3,250 level if the Middle East ceasefire holds [7] - Bullish perspective from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America sets a long-term target of $4,000, supported by central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually and weakening dollar credibility [8] Consumer and Investor Strategies - For consumers, it is advisable to focus on essential purchases in wholesale markets like Shenzhen Shui Bei, where costs are significantly lower [10] - Sales of small-weight jewelry items have surged by 80%, indicating a preference for lower total prices and reduced risk [11] - For investors, a cautious approach is recommended, observing the $3,300 support level, and considering short positions if prices break below this level [13] - Long-term strategies include regular investments in gold ETFs, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] - Diversification is encouraged, combining gold investments with government bonds and stable financial products to mitigate risks [15]