美股创新高背后：特朗普关税威胁遭“无视”，警报解除了吗？

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a rapid decline into a bear market due to "reciprocal tariffs" but rebounded sharply, reaching new highs within two months [1][2] - On June 27, the S&P 500 index hit an intraday high of 6187.68 points, while the Nasdaq reached 20311.51 points, both marking historical peaks [1] - Despite President Trump's announcement to halt trade negotiations with Canada and threaten new tariffs, the stock market continued to rise, with the S&P 500 closing at a record 6173.07 points, reflecting a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion since early April [2] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index's forward P/E ratio has surged above 23, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to earnings expectations, raising concerns about market complacency [4] - Analysts warn of rising risks of speculative market bubbles, with a shift in investor focus from tariffs to tax cuts and interest rate cuts potentially leading to high-risk market conditions in the second half of the year [4] - UBS raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6000 to 6200, maintaining a "neutral" rating, suggesting limited upside potential for the index [4] Group 3 - Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs, its year-to-date performance lags behind other major markets, with the Hang Seng Index up 21.06% and the DAX Index up 20.71% [5] - The U.S. economy is currently facing "stagflation" concerns, with the core PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% as of May [6] - Consumer income and spending data for May fell short of expectations, with personal income declining by 0.4% and personal spending decreasing by 0.1% [6] Group 4 - The U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised down, showing a 0.5% annualized decline, which is worse than economists' expectations [7] - Market analysts suggest that uncertainty will become the new norm, with a shift towards a more volatile market environment characterized by rising inflation and increased capital costs [7] - Despite optimistic market sentiment, trade negotiation deadlines are approaching, which could introduce risks related to tariffs and their impact on inflation, corporate profit margins, and global growth [7][8] Group 5 - JPMorgan indicates that while the risk of a U.S. recession has decreased, it remains significant, with a 40% chance of recession in the second half of the year [8] - In a survival-of-the-fittest market environment, high-quality companies with strong return on equity, low leverage, and stable earnings are expected to perform better during periods of high volatility [8]