封锁海峡，石油涨价，伊朗要把全世界拉下水，只有俄罗斯是大赢家

Core Viewpoint - Iran's parliament has officially approved the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which is a significant geopolitical move that could disrupt global oil supply and impact the international economy [4][9]. Geopolitical Importance - The Strait of Hormuz is located between Iran and Oman, serving as the only maritime exit for the oil-rich Persian Gulf, connecting it to the wider Indian Ocean [4][6]. - Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait daily, accounting for over 20% of global oil consumption, along with 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade [6][9]. Economic Implications - A closure of the Strait could lead to a loss of at least 20% of global oil supply, significantly impacting international oil trade and the overall economic landscape [9][11]. - Oil prices are expected to surge, with predictions suggesting prices could exceed $100 per barrel, potentially reaching $130 in extreme scenarios, which would exert immense pressure on the global economy [9][11]. Historical Context - The situation draws parallels to the 1973 oil crisis, where geopolitical tensions led to significant oil price increases and economic turmoil in Western countries [11][13]. Regional Reactions - Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE oppose the closure, as their economies heavily rely on oil exports, and they lack sufficient alternative transport methods [15][17]. - Major industrial nations, including the US, Germany, and Japan, would also be adversely affected, as oil supply disruptions could hinder their economic growth [17][18]. China's Position - China, as a major oil importer, sources about 40% of its oil from the Persian Gulf, making it vulnerable to price hikes and industrial disruptions if the Strait is closed [18][20]. Iran's Dilemma - While Iran controls the Strait and could enforce a blockade, such an action could backfire economically, as it would also cut off its own oil exports, exacerbating its already fragile economy [20][22]. Potential Beneficiaries - Russia may benefit from rising oil prices due to reduced supply from the Persian Gulf, potentially increasing its influence in global energy markets [22].