影响因素多样化 6月下半月正丁醇超预期上行

Core Viewpoint - The market for n-butanol showed a trend of decline followed by a strong rebound in June, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and diverse market drivers, although future market corrections are anticipated as positive influences wane [1][9]. Supply and Demand Factors - In June, n-butanol prices initially fell but rebounded strongly in the latter half of the month, with prices reaching 6450-6450 RMB/ton by June 25, an increase of 200 RMB/ton from the monthly average and 275 RMB/ton from the lowest point during the month [1]. - The supply-demand situation improved, with market confidence, supply, and costs contributing positively to n-butanol prices [1]. Impact of Raw Materials - The average gross margin for the n-butanol industry fell below 8% in Q2, with a slight improvement in June, but absolute gross margins remained low [4]. - As of June 23, propylene prices rose to 6890-7000 RMB/ton, increasing n-butanol production costs by approximately 256 RMB/ton, which significantly compressed profit margins [4]. Market Sentiment and External Influences - The strong performance of crude oil prices in June, influenced by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, bolstered market confidence and reduced bearish sentiment towards n-butanol, despite the restart of several production facilities [3]. - The anticipated reduction in n-butanol supply from neighboring regions, particularly due to planned shutdowns in Taiwan, may alleviate pressure on the domestic market and create export opportunities [7]. Production and Operational Challenges - Unexpected fluctuations in production facilities in June led to a failure of the industry to meet previous inventory accumulation expectations, with reduced operational levels observed in several plants [6]. - The industry is expected to shift from inventory depletion to accumulation, with increased domestic production anticipated to counterbalance any reductions in imports [9][10].