央行称人民币是第三大支付货币，SWIFT却显示排第六，怎么回事？

Core Viewpoint - The recent SWIFT data indicates that the payment share of the Chinese yuan (RMB) has dropped to 2.89% in May, marking a significant decline and placing it sixth among global currencies, behind the US dollar, euro, British pound, Japanese yen, and Canadian dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Payment Share Statistics - SWIFT's ranking shows RMB as the sixth largest payment currency, while the People's Bank of China (PBOC) claims it is the third largest when considering all payment methods [1][7]. - The discrepancy between SWIFT and PBOC data arises from different statistical scopes; SWIFT only accounts for transactions processed through its network, while PBOC includes all RMB transactions [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Affecting RMB Payment Statistics - The first factor is that domestic RMB payments are processed through local channels, not SWIFT, leading to underreporting in SWIFT statistics [3][5]. - The second factor is that small-value payments, typically under $10,000, are less likely to use SWIFT, resulting in many small RMB transactions being excluded from SWIFT's data [5]. - The third factor is that payments between branches of the same bank in different countries may not utilize SWIFT, further contributing to the discrepancy [5]. - The fourth factor is the increasing role of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which has expanded significantly since its launch in 2015 and now covers over 180 countries, allowing more RMB transactions to bypass SWIFT [7]. Group 3: Future Prospects for RMB Internationalization - Short-term challenges exist for the RMB to surpass the euro or dollar in global payment share, as most trade is still settled in these currencies [9]. - However, with the gradual decline of dollar dominance and ongoing efforts to internationalize the RMB, achieving a higher status is seen as a potential future outcome [10]. - Strategies suggested for enhancing RMB's global standing include integrating CIPS with global payment systems, deepening currency cooperation with emerging markets, and cautiously advancing capital account openness [10].