止跌回稳可期 “新模式”渐行渐近——房地产市场半年回顾丨智库

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing initial signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, although the underlying foundation remains fragile. A series of policies initiated since last year have contributed to a notable rebound in the market, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities, despite some fluctuations in sales and prices in April and May [2][3][7]. Policy Measures - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized the need for a comprehensive assessment of existing land and ongoing projects in the real estate sector, aiming to optimize current policies and enhance their effectiveness to stabilize expectations, activate demand, and mitigate risks [3][9]. - The 2025 real estate policy framework focuses on stabilizing expectations, promoting demand, optimizing supply, and preventing risks through financial support, demand stimulation, and revitalization of existing resources [11][12]. Market Performance - From January to May 2025, new residential sales area and sales revenue decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, but the decline was significantly less than in 2024, indicating a recovery trend [7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties decreased to 77.427 million square meters by the end of May 2025, marking a continuous decline for three months [8]. Land Market Activity - The land market in core cities has shown signs of recovery, with significant transactions occurring in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou, despite a national decline in land transaction volume [9]. Housing Supply and Demand - Local governments are implementing measures to relax purchase restrictions, provide subsidies, and optimize public housing policies to stimulate demand [12][13]. - The housing provident fund policies have been adjusted to lower interest rates and expand usage, enhancing affordability for homebuyers [13]. New Development Model - The shift towards a new real estate development model emphasizes a balanced approach to housing supply, focusing on quality and service rather than just speed and scale [16][19]. - The government is promoting urban renewal as a key strategy to revitalize existing assets and support long-term operational models in the real estate sector [19][20].