Core Viewpoint - The rising lemon prices are causing concern in the tea beverage industry, which heavily relies on lemons as a key ingredient for summer drinks, leading to questions about profitability and supply chain stability [1][5]. Price Trends - Lemon prices have increased from an average of 9.94 yuan per kilogram in April to 12.92 yuan in June, marking a 30% rise [2]. - Extreme price claims, such as lemons selling for 30 yuan each, are largely exaggerated and do not reflect the overall market situation [2]. Supply Chain Factors - The price increase is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced production due to drought conditions in key growing regions and export disruptions from traditional suppliers like Turkey [2]. - Major tea brands, such as Mixue and others, are heavily investing in lemon-based products, indicating a strong demand despite rising costs [4]. Impact on Profitability - The cost increase of lemons is manageable within the overall cost structure of tea beverages, as the impact on the total cost of a cup of lemon water remains relatively low [8][10]. - Even with lemons priced at 15 yuan per kilogram, the overall profitability of lemon drinks is not severely threatened due to the inclusion of other ingredients and the strategic pricing of beverages [8][10]. Supply Chain Resilience - Companies with established supply chains, like Mixue, are less affected by price fluctuations due to their direct procurement strategies and long-term contracts with suppliers [12][15]. - Mixue's procurement practices allow it to maintain lower costs compared to market prices, which helps in keeping consumer prices stable [11][15]. Agricultural Innovations - The modernization of agricultural practices, such as the introduction of advanced irrigation and monitoring systems, has improved the efficiency and yield of lemon production, further supporting supply chain stability [17]. - These innovations contribute to a significant reduction in production costs, enhancing the competitive edge of companies that adopt them [17][18]. Industry Outlook - The lemon price surge highlights the importance of supply chain capabilities in the tea beverage industry, suggesting that companies with robust supply chains will be better positioned to handle market volatility [12][18]. - The ongoing trend of introducing lemon-based products reflects a broader strategy to capitalize on the growing health beverage market, benefiting both consumers and the lemon industry in the long run [18].
柠檬涨价，奶茶店主慌了？我发现真相并非如此