高油价的威胁暂时解除，全球能源灾难暂时躲过，但以后呢？

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has brought the Strait of Hormuz closer to potential closure than ever before, which could have severe consequences for global markets [1][2] - Analysts warn that any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly increase energy prices and trigger a global recession, despite the current temporary ceasefire [2][9] - Approximately 25% of global oil trade, equating to 15 to 19 million barrels per day, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is also crucial for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports [2][3] Group 2 - Initial impacts on the oil and gas market were relatively mild, with Brent crude oil prices rising to $79 per barrel, only $9 higher than pre-conflict levels, while U.S. crude oil prices fell by 7.2% to $68.51 per barrel [3][6] - Experts indicate that if the Strait remains blocked for a week or longer, oil prices could easily rise to $150 per barrel, with significant supply disruptions expected [6][7] - The potential for a full-scale war could lead to oil prices exceeding $150 per barrel, especially if key facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are destroyed [7][8] Group 3 - The current ceasefire is viewed as a temporary pause, with the option to close the Strait of Hormuz remaining a consideration for analysts and politicians [10][12] - The crisis has highlighted the rapid escalation potential of conflicts in the region, with the Strait of Hormuz acting as a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies [12]